Case Prevalence Per 10,000, By Town

For the week ending June 30, 2021

SUSAN BIGELOW

Cases of COVID-19 rose for the first time since April this past week, though whether that rise was due to the spread of the much more contagious delta variant of the virus is unclear.

The state reported a total of 512 new cases for the week ending June 30, 2021, an increase of 232 cases, or 83%, from last week’s record low of 280. This is an increase of 214, or 72%, from the 298 cases reported two weeks ago, but is still lower than the 584 cases reported for the week ending June 9th. 

The state conducted many more tests this past week than at any point since mid-May. A total of 110,061 new tests were recorded, compared with 63,701 for the week ending June 23rd and 72,698 for the week ending June 16. This means that despite there being more positive test results, the test positivity rate has stayed roughly the same as last week and the week before. Test positivity this week was a very low 0.47%, compared with 0.44% last week and 0.41% two weeks ago. 

Statewide case prevalence, or the number of new cases per 10,000 people, also rose from 0.78 for the week ending June 23 to 1.43 for the week ending June 30. Case prevalence was 0.83 for the week ending June 16, and 1.63 for the week ending June 9th. Death rates and hospitalizations remain near or at pandemic lows.

It’s not clear whether the rise in cases, which mostly were reported on Thursday and Friday of last week, has to do with the more contagious delta variant of the virus. The state only sequences a limited number of tests to look for variants, which means it’s very hard to know where Connecticut stands with regard to this particular variant. More data on variants will be released Thursday, which could give us a better picture.

If the delta variant is driving an increase in cases, the unvaccinated are obviously at the most risk. Connecticut’s high vaccination rate should mean that there won’t be a massive spike in cases such as the one that happened last fall and winter. However, the state may find that a COVID-free summer is much more elusive than we’d hoped.

Let’s take a look at the map.

Once again, the vast majority of towns had fewer than 2 new cases per 10,000 residents, which is very low. 58 towns recorded no new cases at all, which is down from last week’s 83. Onyl six towns had a case prevalence above 5 new cases per 10,000 residents: Sherman (5.53), Windham (6.07), Bridgewater (6.09), New Hartford (7.48), Canterbury (15.69), and Hampton (21.59). WIth the exception of Windham, these are rural towns where only a small number of cases can have an outsize impact on case prevalence.

There are no visible patterns except for a cluster of three higher-prevalence towns in Windham County. Cases rose slightly all over the state.

Unless the situation dramatically changes, this will be the last of this series of weekly maps and analyses chronicling the highs and lows of the pandemic in Connecticut. Thank you to all of you who read these pieces.

For the final time, here is last week’s map for comparison.

Case Prevalence Per 10,000, By Town

For the week ending June 23, 2021

Susan Bigelow is an award-winning columnist and the founder of CTLocalPolitics. She lives in Enfield with her wife and their cats.

The views, opinions, positions, or strategies expressed by the author are theirs alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, or positions of CTNewsJunkie.com.

Susan Bigelow

Susan Bigelow is an award-winning columnist and the founder of CTLocalPolitics. She lives in Enfield with her wife and their cats.