Case Prevalence Per 10,000, By Town

For the week ending May 12, 2021

SUSAN BIGELOW

Cases of COVID-19 and case prevalence, or the number of cases per 10,000 people, fell dramatically again this week thanks to high vaccination rates and warming weather.

For the week ending May 12, 2021, cases fell from 3,610 to 2,570, a drop of 28%. Cases have dropped by almost half in the past two weeks, falling 48% from 4,966 for the week ending April 28. Statewide prevalence fell from 10.10 new cases per 10,000 to 7.19. Test positivity also fell from an already low 1.9% to 1.6%.

This is right about where we were this time last year; for the week ending May 25, 2020, cases had dropped from 4,388 to 2,769, clearing the way for a long summer of relative safety. So what can we expect? Last summer’s lull was the result of a successful lockdown, travel and business restrictions, and warmer weather drawing people outdoors where transmission risk was a lot lower. This summer will not have the same business restrictions, but a sizable and ever-increasing share of the population being vaccinated should more than make up for it.

If the science is right on this, we should see the same kind of rapid fall-off of cases that we did last year, but unlike then those numbers will continue to drop past a few hundred cases per week and into double or single digits.

Let’s take a look at the map.

For the first time in over six months, there are no towns that reported over 20 cases per 10,000 people. Compare this to early January, where almost every town was reporting 40+ cases per 10,000! There are only 22 towns that are reporting between 10-20 new cases per 10,000, everyone else is below 10. However, among those 22 towns are the major cities of Hartford, New Haven, Waterbury, and Bridgeport. Urban outreach and vaccination programs are still lagging behind the rest of the state.

Sixteen towns reported no new cases this week. These were mostly rural towns, but there were a few suburbs like Cheshire and Brookfield in the mix as well.

This is a good map, and these are encouraging numbers. Go outside, take a breath, and know that the end is in sight.

Here is last week’s map for comparison:

Case Prevalence Per 10,000, By Town

For the week ending May 5, 2021

Susan Bigelow is an award-winning columnist and the founder of CTLocalPolitics. She lives in Enfield with her wife and their cats.

The views, opinions, positions, or strategies expressed by the author are theirs alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, or positions of CTNewsJunkie.com.

Susan Bigelow

Susan Bigelow is an award-winning columnist and the founder of CTLocalPolitics. She lives in Enfield with her wife and their cats.