Case Prevalence Per 10,000, By Town

For the week ending April 21, 2021

SUSAN BIGELOW

New cases of COVID-19 fell sharply all across the state this past week as vaccinations continue and warmer weather sets in. But for a pandemic-weary population, there’s only one question that matters: is this the real beginning of the end, or is this just another temporary drop with case numbers soon to climb again?

Connecticut’s count of new cases fell by 2,182, or 33.22%, from the week ending April 14 to the week ending April 21. This is the biggest drop in cases, both numerically and percentage-wise, since early February when the state was recovering from the peak of the second wave. Case prevalence, or the number of new cases per 10,000 residents, fell from 23.88 to 15.94, and test positivity fell from 3.3% to 2.6%.

These numbers are roughly comparable to where we were in early March, and that’s a very hopeful sign. After the peak of the second wave in early January, when there were over 21,000 new cases in a week, case numbers fell to about 5,000 to 6,000 in February, and remained there for about a month. This rose to about 7,500 to 8,500 new cases per week for the month between mid-March and mid-April as more contagious variants, especially the variant first identified in the United Kingdom, became dominant.

The fact that we’re back where we were before this latest rise in cases could suggest that vaccination efforts are finally getting ahead of the variants. That, plus the advent of warmer weather when more people spend time outside, is a hopeful sign that we’re entering a period of sustained decline.

But this virus has been so stubborn, and this pandemic has stretched on for so long, that it may yet have a few more nasty surprises in store for us.

Let’s take a look at the map.

Cases dropped significantly all over the state, with very few towns recording increases. Some of the more obvious clusters of higher infection rates around Bridgeport, Waterbury, and New Haven have essentially dissipated. A surge of cases in Bridgeport seems to have abated; the Park City recorded 433 new cases this past week compared with 727 the week before.

The vast majority of towns now have case prevalence rates between 5 and 20 new cases per 10,000 residents. No towns had a case prevalence of higher than 40 for the first time since early March. Three towns, Beacon Falls (38.82), Goshen (38.21), and Prospect (36.77) had a case prevalence of over 30, while seven towns, Bozrah, Canaan, Colebrook, Cornwall, Deep River, Hartland, and Sharon recorded no new cases at all. There are no significant or obvious geographical patterns, which suggests that there are no regional outbreaks.

Here is last week’s map for comparison:

Case Prevalence Per 10,000, By Town

For the week ending April 14, 2021

Susan Bigelow is an award-winning columnist and the founder of CTLocalPolitics. She lives in Enfield with her wife and their cats.

The views, opinions, positions, or strategies expressed by the author are theirs alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, or positions of CTNewsJunkie.com.

Susan Bigelow

Susan Bigelow is an award-winning columnist and the founder of CTLocalPolitics. She lives in Enfield with her wife and their cats.