Case Prevalence Per 10,000, By Town

For the week ending March 3, 2021

SUSAN BIGELOW

COVID-19 cases and case prevalence, or the number of new cases per 10,000 people, dropped again this week after rising for the first time since early January. Case numbers are now at their lowest ebb since late October. 

The state reported 5,438 new cases for the week ending March 3, 2021. This is down 20% from last week’s 6,828, but only down about 7% from the 5,860 of two weeks before. It seems, then, that last week’s jump in numbers was likely not a sign of a major resurgence of the virus, but instead an interruption in a pattern of falling case numbers. Sometimes the drop is fast, sometimes slow, but the improvement we’ve seen since the beginning of the year shows that it’s real.

Statewide case prevalence is now 15.22 new cases per 10,000 residents, down from 19.11 last week and 16.40 two weeks ago. Test positivity remains low at 2.3%, which means the state is likely catching the vast majority of cases.

Looking at the map, we see that once again, most towns on the map are somewhere in the ranges of 5-10 new cases per 10,000 residents or 10-20 new cases per 10,000 residents. The southwestern third of the state, generally encompassing New Haven and Fairfield Counties, is trending a little more toward 10-20 than 5-10, while the rest of the state is much more in the 5-10 range.

Eleven towns reported zero new cases this past week. Once again, most of these towns were in the northwest hills, but there were a few spread around the rest of the state, as well. Tiny Union (population 854) had only 7 new cases, but that was enough to catapult the state’s smallest town into the top slot for case prevalence at 83.33 new cases per 10,000 people. No other town broke 40, and only two, Westbrook (33.27) and Suffield (34.30) had a case prevalence over 30.

Last week I noted a possible pattern of higher case prevalence near the New York border. This pattern still exists, but it is much less visible. The New Haven area stands out a little bit for having several towns, including the city itself, with a case prevalence over 20, but this is likely not a worrisome trend as many of these towns were at or near this range last week.

Case numbers should continue to fall, especially as vaccinations have now been opened up to those in the 55-65 age group. Spring is definitely on the way, but as any New Englander knows, there’s lots of ups and downs until we finally get to May.

Here’s last week’s map for comparison:

Case Prevalence Per 10,000, By Town

For the week ending Feb. 24, 2021

Susan Bigelow is an award-winning columnist and the founder of CTLocalPolitics. She lives in Enfield with her wife and their cats.

The views, opinions, positions, or strategies expressed by the author are theirs alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, or positions of CTNewsJunkie.com.

Susan Bigelow

Susan Bigelow is an award-winning columnist and the founder of CTLocalPolitics. She lives in Enfield with her wife and their cats.