Case Prevalence Per 10,000, By Town

For the week ending Feb. 10, 2021

COVID-19 case numbers and prevalence, or the number of cases per 10,000 people, continued to fall across Connecticut for the fourth week in a row. This marks the longest period of sustained decline since late spring, when cases and prevalence fell through the four weeks from May 18 to June 10.

Case numbers still remain dangerously high both in Connecticut and across the nation, but the peak is hopefully behind us now.

This welcome news comes as vaccines are about to be made available to those age 65 and over. Gov. Ned Lamont announced on Monday that those in the 65-75 age group will be able to start making appointments today.

The state recorded 8,492 cases for the week ending Feb. 10, down by over 1,000 from last week’s case number of 9,665 and down by nearly 13,000 cases from the peak during the week of Jan. 14. Statewide case prevalence is at 23.77 cases per 10,000 people, which is the lowest since the week of Nov. 4.

The test positivity rate is about 3.4%, which means that the state is likely not missing a large number of cases, and that the numbers are more or less accurate. This is down slightly from last week’s test positivity rate of 3.9%.

Connecticut continues to test high numbers of people; this past week 250,299 were tested. At that rate, which has been fairly consistent for the past few months, the entire population of the state could be tested every 14 weeks.

Looking at this week’s map, case numbers continue to improve in towns all over the state, though eastern Connecticut is still lagging behind somewhat. Most towns are now in the 10-20 or 20-30 new cases per 10,000 people range; four weeks ago, almost all towns were in the 40+ range.

There are a few outliers. Killingly, Griswold, Sharon, and Roxbury have prevalence numbers over 40; Griswold, at 52.63, was the highest in the state. Warren was the only town with no new cases at all. But generally most towns did see a decline this week.

It’s hard to know how new, more contagious strains of the virus might affect numbers here in Connecticut, and when we might start to see those effects. If there are sudden, otherwise inexplicable rises in case and prevalence numbers in towns in a specific geographic region, that could be a sign that the more contagious strains are becoming more widespread there. This has not happened yet, but it is something to keep an eye on.

Public health officials are now recommending double-masking as a way to guard against transmission.

Here’s last week’s map for comparison:

Case Prevalence Per 10,000, By Town

For the week ending Feb. 3, 2021

Susan Bigelow is an award-winning columnist and the founder of CTLocalPolitics. She lives in Enfield with her wife and their cats.

The views, opinions, positions, or strategies expressed by the author are theirs alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, or positions of or any of the author's other employers.