Case Prevalence Per 10,000, By Town

For the week ending October 7

Is this the second wave, a rebound effect of the first wave’s devastation of much of the rest of the country, or some combination of the two? In the end it doesn’t really matter, because it’s become impossible to ignore the trends of the past two months. Slowly but surely, COVID-19 has come back.

We’re about where we were in mid-to-late May in both raw case count and case prevalence, which factors for population by measuring the number of cases per 10,000 people. There were 1,814 new cases recorded from September 30 to October 7, which works out to a case prevalence of 5.08 new cases for every 10,000 people in the state. By comparison, there were 1,219 new cases from September 23 to September 30, which is a case prevalence of 2.91.

During the week of June 17 to June 24, by contrast, there were only 674 new cases, which is a case prevalence of 1.80.

Since then, we saw ups and downs for a while before fall brought with it this new round of infections. There are 138 people currently hospitalized, which is a number we haven’t seen since early summer.

The good news is that the state continues to test and contact trace aggressively, and our test positivity rate is generally somewhere just above 1%. This could be better, of course, but given the situation it could be much worse.

This week’s map shows New London County continuing to be the hardest hit. Cases there have been climbing for a few weeks, now. Norwich appears to be seeing the most cases, 155, and the highest case prevalence in the state at 39.61. Other nearby towns like Sprague, New London, Griswold, Preston, and Colchester are also seeing high case prevalence numbers. Small, maskless gatherings in enclosed spaces are the cause of at least some of the new infections, according to contact tracers.

The University of Connecticut at Storrs has managed to get a handle on coronavirus cases on campus, but the university’s host town of Mansfield has reported 80 new cases this week, for a case prevalence of 30.99. That’s the second-highest in the state.

The city of Danbury continues to struggle as cases there rose yet again after decreasing the previous week. Danbury had 93 cases during the week ending September 23rd; that dipped to 75 the following week, but has now gone back up to 91.

Greater Hartford and Greater Bridgeport both saw more cases this week, as well.

The New Haven area continues to be a bright spot, however, with the city and surrounding towns mostly having a case prevalence under 2. Northwest Connecticut also continues to see few cases, mainly due to its low population.

Phase Three of reopening, which will raise the indoor capacity limits for many businesses, restaurants, and public services, started Thursday, October 8th.

Here is last week’s map for comparison:

Case Prevalence Per 10,000, By Town

For the week ending September 30

Susan Bigelow is an award-winning columnist and the founder of CTLocalPolitics. She lives in Enfield with her wife and their cats.

The views, opinions, positions, or strategies expressed by the author are theirs alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, or positions of or any of the author's other employers.