Case Prevalence Per 10,000, By Town

For the Week Ending June 10

This week’s prevalence map, which shows new COVID-19 cases per 10,000 people in each town over the past week, is the continuation of a slow but positive trend. Case numbers have been falling, as have hospitalizations and deaths.

This map, as well as the updated rolling weekly raw case count map, can give us a good sense of what’s going on in Connecticut now. They also can give us a sense of whether the state’s cautious re-opening efforts are on track, and whether the George Floyd protests have contributed to a spike in cases.

The answers so far are that yes, the state is on track, and no spike in cases from the protests has yet appeared.

Cases in the blue case count map do show higher case numbers in Connecticut’s more densely-populated areas in the southwest and along the I-91 corridor. If more cases were going to appear from the protests, they’d be here.

Weekly New Cases By Town

For the Week Ending June 10

But the purple prevalence map, which factors for population, shows that the cities and larger towns aren’t really outliers. Hartford and New Haven’s cases per 10,000 people (9.55 and 9.20 respectively) aren’t that far off from Essex (8.99) and Southbury (7.63), and they’re significantly better than Old Saybrook (16.85) and Windham (13.76).

In fact, the cities are doing better in terms of both raw number of cases and cases per 10,000 people than at any time since March. In that, they are right in line with the rest of the state.

Connecticut will be entering phase two of our reopening next week, and hopefully these positive trends will continue. Unfortunately, many other states are not faring as well right now. As restrictions ease and travel starts up again, we’re going to have to be as vigilant and careful as ever if we want to avoid undoing all the progress we’ve made.

And here below are charts that visualize the three-day rolling average of new COVID-19 cases reported in Connecticut, including new positives and new negatives based on data from the Department of Public Health, and the daily hospitalizations for COVID-19.

This chart offers the data in three-day averages.

Susan Bigelow is an award-winning columnist and the founder of CTLocalPolitics. She lives in Enfield with her wife and their cats.

The views, opinions, positions, or strategies expressed by the author are theirs alone, and do not necessarily reflect the views, opinions, or positions of or any of the author's other employers.