Republican Tom Foley has overtaken Democrat Dan Malloy by three points in the latest Quinnipiac University poll.
Foley received 48 percent of the vote to Malloy’s 45 percent in a poll conducted between Oct. 25-Oct.31. Just last week Malloy held a five point lead over Foley, but the Republican seems to be gaining momentum heading into the election.
Independent voters shifted their support from Malloy to Foley in the latest poll and Malloy‘s unfavorables have increased from 34 percent last week to 41 percent today.
“The late deciders are breaking for Tom Foley. There has been a big shift among independents in the final week of the campaign toward the Republican,” Quinnipiac University Poll Director Doug Schwartz said. “Dan Malloy’s unfavorables have risen to the point where he gets a mixed favorability rating for the first time.”
For Foley to win he needs to win the independent vote by a substantial margin, Schwartz said. “But this race is too close to call. With six percent still undecided there is still room for movement.”
“Foley has the numerical lead and the momentum but Malloy still could pull this out,” Schwartz added.
Malloy’s campaign said it isn’t worried.
“In the past few days, some polls have had us up, some down, and some within the margin of error,” Malloy’s campaign manager Dan Kelly said. “Today’s Quinnipiac poll shows us down 3 points – the same deficit we faced the day before the primary. We are confident that Dan’s strength as a closer, coupled with our ground game, will result in a victory tomorrow.”
In the race for the U.S. Senate Republican Linda McMahon narrowed the gap to within nine points, but was never able to overtake Democrat Richard Blumenthal, the popular attorney general. McMahon had been gaining on Blumenthal and brought the race to within the margin of error at the end of September.
Blumenthal still holds a 53 to 44 percent lead over McMahon, which is down slightly from the 12 point lead he held on Oct. 26.
In the latest poll only three percent of voters are undecided in the U.S. Senate race and five percent say they could change their mind over the next 24-hours.
Independent voters, who went 56 – 40 percent for Blumenthal last week, now tip 49 – 44 percent for McMahon.
“Independent voters, who have been very volatile in this election season, are shifting back to the Republican candidates in both the Senate and governor’s races,” Schwartz said. And like other polls women still back Blumenthal 61 to 36 percent, while men favor McMahon 50 to 46 percent.
“Linda McMahon’s mini surge may be too little, too late,” said Schwartz.
“If you look at the independents you’ll find they clearly are breaking this way, undecided women too,” said McMahon at the Vernon Diner Monday. “I’ve found that all weekend long. I’ve been out on the campaign trial and there’s great momentum, great shifting. Our internal polls have this really as a dead heat so my foot is not coming off the accelerator.”
“In the course of less than a week, we have seen an influx of support among women and disaffected Democrats who are convinced Linda will help put the economy back on track and create jobs,” McMahon’s communications director Ed Patru said. “With the race this close, turnout will determine which candidate will be Connecticut’s next Senator. Linda’s supporters are fired up and ready to head to the polls. Our volunteers have knocked on 100,000 doors—15,000 this past weekend alone. And we have made nearly 400,000 phone calls. The momentum is entirely behind our campaign, and we believe Linda is poised for an historic upset victory tomorrow night.”