A poll conducted by the Merriman River Group in Hamden found that of 1,623 likely voters surveyed, 52.4 percent support Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Richard Blumenthal and 44.7 percent support Republican U.S. Senate candidate Linda McMahon. Another poll released Monday shows Blumenthal up 53 percent to McMahon’s 41 percent. Both polls are in stark contrast to the Quinnipiac University poll last week which put McMahon within three points of Blumenthal.
The Merriman River Group poll was conducted Oct. 3. The Public Policy Polling poll surveyed 810 likely voters between Sept. 30 and Oct. 2.
“With a month to go, Richard Blumenthal enjoys a competitive advantage stronger than the relatively close poll numbers would suggest,” said Merriman River Group’s Executive Director Matthew Fitch. “He has crossed the 50 percent threshold, and his supporters appear committed, with 87.5 percent of them saying they will definitely vote for him. Linda McMahon has run a strong campaign, and also enjoys a strong commitment from her supporters, with 83 percent of her followers saying they will definitely vote for her.”
“Although there is no incumbent, McMahon is clearly perceived as the challenger,” said Fitch. “Unlike most challengers, however, she enjoys better than equal footing in name recognition and financing. While most successful challengers peak in the last days of the election, she may have already reached her peak with limited potential for further upside.”
Click here to view the cross tabulations of each of the questions asked in the Merriman River Group poll.
The poll has a 2.4 percent margin of error. It was commissioned by the news aggregation site CT Capitol Report.
“Connecticut is a Democratic state to begin with and Richard Blumenthal is confounding many of the trends giving his party’s candidates trouble in other states,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Most Democratic candidates are getting beaten badly with independents. Blumenthal is not. Most Democratic candidates are losing more Democrats than they’re winning Republicans. Blumenthal doesn’t fall in that category either. He still looks solid with four weeks to go.”
The Public Policy Polling poll has a 3.4 percent margin of error.
Ed Patru, McMahon’s communications director, said the two newest polls are not to be trusted.
“Merriman River Group and PPP are Democratic Party firms and their numbers are at odds with the findings of Quinnipiac, Rasmussen and our own internal numbers. And frankly, I don’t believe the Democrats buy those numbers either because if they did, they wouldn’t be rushing to buy ads in Connecticut,” Patru said.